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July ’10 – Reiling’s Real Estate Market Report – Greater Seattle / Bellevue / King County Area

Real Estate Market Overview  
Our Greater Seattle / Bellevue residential real estate market continues to show strong Closed Sales numbers as the tax credit winds up, especially in the lower and medium price ranges. June numbers for Pending Sales transactions, meaning new contracts, are about the same as in May, but down sharply from April, as we have passed the April 30th cutoff date for the tax credit. That drop off will start showing up in the Closed Sales statistics for July as the tax-credit deals work their way through escrow and financing.  Congress has extended the final closing date to help some people who got their contract signed by April 30, but are still hung up in financing issues, etc. If so, that may lengthen the tail-off a little bit, but probably not much.
 
Taking out the tax credit effect, it does look like our summer sales rate will be slower than it was last summer, which is consistent with the rest of the news we are getting about the economy and the weakness of the recovery.
Single family home prices continue to look solid, even up a little, but not a statistically significant amount, and inventory continues to rise seasonally, at about the same level as a year ago.  The condominium median sales price dropped back a little again, and is now slightly below year-ago levels; condominium inventory continues to rise seasonally, and continues to run a bit above last year’s levels. 
Current Market Statistics  
The links below provide a graphical summary of Real Estate Market Statistics for the Seattle/Bellevue/King County area over the most recent 3+ years, for single-family homes and for condominiums.   You can see clearly in the thumbnails and in the main charts the big jump in closed sales starting in March, which represents the tax-credit boost.
 
Months Supply is pretty stable for both houses and condos, and is now running below last year’s levels – to under 6 months for houses and a little over 8 months for condos.
 
Here’s the charts for the current stats through June: (Required disclaimer: Statistics and graphs not compiled, reviewed or verified by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service)
 
   June 2010 Closed Real Estate Residential Sales - Greater Seattle:     June 2010 Closed Real Estate Condominium Sales - Greater Seattle: 
          Click for Residential Market Charts                Click for Condominium Market Charts 
 
The new Pending Sales charts for both Single Family Homes and for Condominium Homes continue to show the Tax-Credit Pig working its way through the Pending Python (escrow and financing).  The July data will start to be more interesting in terms of near term market direction.
 
The oddity in last month’s statistics, the dramatic jump in Days on Market in both sets of charts, continues this month.  It looks like a data problem to me, perhaps caused by the MLS changeover to a new system.  I have asked them to look into it, and will correct the charts if I get new data.  But for now, I report it just like I get it.

By the way, all of our newsletter articles are posted on our Greater Seattle Homes blog. So if you want to go back and check a previous one again, just click here.

Best Regards,

    Chuck and Diane

Veritus Realty Group & RE/MAX Eastside+Metro

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Independence Day in More Ways Than One

In the spirit of Independence day, we decided to get a little more independent too.  We have now completed setting up our new independent real estate brokerage firm – called Veritus Realty Group.  Chuck is the managing broker. 

The reason for setting up an independent brokerage is simple – we would like to continue to provide the same great service we always have to our friends and clients without the constraints of big brokerage procedures and overhead. 

The Washington real estate license laws were recently changed (i.e. completely rewritten) to reflect more modern requirements and practices – including better provisions for real estate teams, more recognition of electronic communications, and updated titles of real estate practioners to better reflect what they do, instead of what they are.   An ‘agent’ is still your agent, and has the same Law-of-Agency responsibilities, but what he or she actually does is ‘broker’ (person who serves as a trusted agent or intermediary in commercial negotiations or transactions) a transaction between home buyer and home seller. 
 
So your agent is now called your real estate broker, and people like me who run the brokerage company or office are called designated brokers, or managing brokers.   I’ll bet that was more than you wanted to know about all that, but it was worth mentioning :-)  
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A Tale of Two Studies

home prices overshoot long term trend to the downsideWhither home prices?  is a question on a lot of people’s minds.  I have seen a couple of studies recently which came to radically different conclusions about the future of the Greater Seattle Bellevue real estate market, and I thought I should share them with you. 

With the dramatic fall in home values in most major cities (but not all, by the way) over the past three or four years, many people have become very sensitive to what is happening in their local market.  Some are the potential buyers thinking about the price they might have to pay, and whether or not their new home will hold its value.  Some are the potential sellers thinking about the price they can get, and whether or not they should wait in the hope that prices will get better.  And some are just watching the prices and thinking about their equity and how that impacts their retirement plans.  So home prices are obviously a hot topic, and there are lots of organizations trying to predict what’s next.

One of those organizations is Goldman-Sachs, who arguably may be one of the lead causes of this mess  (if you want the rest of the story, read The Big Short by Michael Lewis).  Their report, titled Home Prices Have Not Bottomed Yet  (skip past the first page in Japanese unless you can read Kanji) suggests that our Seattle housing market has significantly farther to fall – perhaps as much as another 20% in the next two years.  Ouch!

Another organization is MacroMarkets, a firm that sells macroeconomic analysis and reccomendations to major investment firms.  Their report, titled U.S. Home Prices Overshoot Down, posits that our Seattle housing market has already over-corrected, and that now, almost three years after the peak, their gap analysis methodology suggests that our current price level may be about 20% below its long term baseline trend, and represents an investment updside opportunity.  Hmmm..

What is particularly interesting is that both studies use Case-Shiller data to develop their analyses, and Robert Shiller is in fact the Chief Economist for MacroMarkets

The big difference between these two studies, other than their conclusions, is that the Goldman Sachs version is explicitly short term, and the MacroMarkets may be a longer term view.  The basis for the Goldman Sachs strongly negative view seems to be their assessment of our local vacancy rate, and a rising foreclosure rate.  I note that we didn’t even make the Top-20 Highest Foreclosure Rate Cities list in 2009, and we have one of the strongest economies in the nation.  The vacancy rate factor is a puzzler.  Unlike many of the poster-child problem areas, we didn’t have the chance to overbuild so that we had more houses than people, unlike San Diego, Las Vegas and South Florida.  Not that we are smarter or nobler, it’s just that the builders couldn’t get permits to build those excess houses – the Growth Management Act and the King County Building Department scotched that.  Except for the glut of high-end condos in Bellevue and Belltown.  Lots of money being lost there, but it’s being lost by the developers, not individual sellers, and it doesn’t hit the Case Shiller statistics.

The MacroMarkets view is strongly dependent on their estimate of the long-term baseline appreciation rate, which they estimate at 3.58% for the US as a whole and 5.51% for the Seattle area.  While I agree and have always believed that Seattle has a long term appreciation rate that is 2 to 3% better than the US overall due to our strong economy and attractive climate and geography, these baseline rates feel a bit high to me. 

So I wind up stuck in the middle, still thinking that we are just going to muddle through at about the same price level for the next 3 or 4 years, and then start to recover.  That is essentially what I said in my Predicting the Housing Market Recovery post back in March.  We shall see… 

Best Regards,

Chuck

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May ’10 – Reiling’s Real Estate Market Report – Greater Seattle / Bellevue / King County Area

Real Estate Market Overview  
The Greater Seattle residential real estate market is continuing to show strong sales, especially in the lower and medium price ranges as the tax credit boost works its way through the pipeline. Anecdotally, we are also seeing continued good activity now after the tax credit cutoff date, but won’t be able to prove it with published statistics until the July/August numbers are available -all the tax-credit boosted deals should be completed by June 30th
 
The number of Closed Sales for both single family homes and condominiums in April was even higher than the March number, and continues over 50% above last April’s numbers. Prices continue to look solid, and have now spent a whole year at essentially the same stable price level. Inventory for single family homes is still rising seasonally, but is also significantly lower than a year ago. Condo inventory is also climbing seasonally, but has now reached a level slightly higher than a year ago. The condominium median sales price dipped a bit in April, and is now at the lower end of the range it has been in for the past year, which is a bit worrisome considering the big tax-credit boost to sales volumes. 
Current Market Statistics  
The links below provide a graphical summary of Real Estate Market Statistics for the Seattle/Bellevue/King County area over the most recent 3+ years, for single-family homes and for condominiums. You can see clearly in the thumbnails and in the main charts the big jump in closed sales, which says that buyers really got busy signing contracts in February.
 
As might be expected, Months Supply for both houses and condos got worked down sharply from February’s high levels – to under 6 months for houses but still a little over 8 months for condos.

Here’s the charts for the current stats through April: (Required disclaimer: Statistics and graphs not compiled, reviewed or verified by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service) 

        

          Click for Residential Market Charts                Click for Condominium Market Charts 

I mis-stated in the April newsletter that the Fall-Out Ratio of Pending vs Closed sales continued to drop – my apologies. It clearly rose sharply in February, and continues to run high. It appears that this is due to a combination of slower closing times caused by new federal rules on financing and appraisals, and the number of new short sales pushed into the pipeline by tax credit incentives. A contributing factor may be increased interest in short sales due to the new HAFA regulations which went into effect on April 5 – these regulation force improvement in Bank responsiveness to short-sale offers, and should make short sales more attractive to regular buyers.

HAFA is the federal Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternatives program, and you can read more about it in the Short Sale section of our blog post series titled My Mortgage is Underwater. Now What Do I Do?
 
Until now, short sales have been mostly of interest only to investors and first-time buyers who were willing to wait an unconscionably long time to hear whether or not the bank would accept their offer. A side effect of the delay and uncertainty was that agents had to push the listing prices down further and further to entice someone into finally making an offer – thus hurting the neighborhood prices even more. We are expecting that the new HAFA regulations will help, and short sale prices should start moving back up over the next few months to just slightly under market instead of way under.

If you have questions on any of this, or just want to swap ideas on a particular subject, please give me a call. 

Best Regards,

    Chuck Reiling

(206) 850-3507 

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The Shape of the Eastside Residential Market

Ever so often someone asks me about the number of houses available in a particular price range.  Typically it is not an idle question; it is more like the opening round in a discussion about what it would be like to try to sell their house right now.  Depending on their price range, we often shape the conversation in terms of Months Supply – the balance between number of homes currently on the market vs the recent monthly sales rate.  In my regular monthly market comment and analysis  I show charts for overall King County including number of Active Listings, Closed sales, Months Supply and several other parameters of the market. 

        3-Year Residential inventory for Greater Seattle Bellevue King County    3-Year Residential Median Price Greater Seattle Bellevue King County

 
But sometimes it is interesting to take a look at the market in a more specific area, and see how the market is doing by price range.  We are all aware that high-end houses have been selling more slowly than modestly priced houses, but the real question may be “What does that mean in my area?”  So if you live in the central eastside area of greater Seattle – Bellevue, Redmond, Kirkland, Newcastle – here’s what it looks like:

The first chart shows the distribution of recent sales by price range, with the great bulk of sales (80%) in the $300,000 to $800,000 range.  In fact, only 8% of the sales are at prices of $1 million or over.   The second chart shows Months Supply by price range.  Note that the homes in the under $700,000 range are selling quite well, with an average Months Supply reading of about 5 months.  A 6-months supply is considered to be a balanced market, so at this point buyers should expect to have to pay real market price, but have plenty of time to look, and sellers should be able to get near real market price, but should not expect a quick sale unles they price aggressively. 

In contrast to that solid section of the market, the more expensive homes are still clearly in oversupply, getting up to 20+ months supply in the over-$1.5 million range.  Anything over 10 months supply is considered a Buyer’s market, so Sellers in this range have to compete with each other to try to get sold, and prices in that range are still easing down because of that competition.  Since overall prices in the county are holding up very well, prices in the lower range must be pushing up a little to keep the median steady.

 

I don’t have an easy explanation for why the $1.1 to $1.2 million places are selling better, but it does show up both as a low spot in Active Listings and in a corresponding higher Sales Volume, thereby creating a lower Months Supply number.   I checked the actual sales records, and there doesn’t seem to be an abnormally high new home/builder sales number that might be driving this – the percentage of new homes in the mix at the $1.1 million range (30%) is only a little higher than the percentage of new homes in the $600,000 range (25%).  I’m sure that the improved availability of  jumbo mortgage money from big bankers like Bank of America and Wells Fargo is a factor, but why doesn’t it apply to the $900,000 range?  We’ll look again in a few months to see if this anomaly persists.  In the meantime, if you have a home in the $1.1 to 1.2 million price range that you’d like to sell, this might be a good time :-)

If you have questions about any part of this analysis, or something more specific, please give me a call.

Best Regards,

    Chuck Reiling

(206) 850-3507

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My Mortgage is Underwater. Now What Do I Do? . . . . . . . The Series Summary

This new real estate ‘technical’ term underwater is getting quite a bit of press lately, and unfortunately it applies to a lot of us.  What it means is “my house is no longer worth as much as I owe on it.”  It means your equity is gone, and it also means that you can’t easily sell the house and pay off the loan if you want to move.

Truly an unpleasant situation.

Just for some rough numbers on the scale of the problem: there are about 110 million households in the U.S.  Of that, about 70 million are in owned homes, not rentals.  Of that 70 million homes, about 30% are owned outright – no mortgage.  Of the roughly 50 million homes with a mortgage, about 25%, 12 million or so, are under water.

But you probably don’t care near as much about the other 11,999,999 mortgage holders as you do about yourself.

If you are one of those unfortunate underwater folks, this note will outline what some of your choices are, and what they might mean to you.  Many of the choices are dependent on the question of whether you are financially solvent or insolvent.  Insolvent means you do not have enough income or savings (excluding IRAs & 401Ks) to make the payments.

Here’s the topics, and the options.  Each title is also a link to a more detailed write-up

  1. Sit Tight – If have the income or the reserves to make the payments, you may just want to sit tight and ride it out for however long it takes for prices to recover.  For some, an unpleasant but practical option may be #5 below.
  2. Loan Modification – If you are insolvent, but have sufficient income to pay at least most of the mortgage, your lender may be willing to agree to a modification of your loan terms that allows you to make a lower monthly payment and still stay in your home.
  3. Short Sale – If you are insolvent and cannot make a substantial regular payment, your lender may agree to let you sell the house, and accept the proceeds (short pay) as full payment of the debt.  There are some new government guidelines for lenders to help this along.
  4. Deed in Lieu – If you are insolvent as in the Short Sale case, your lender may also be willing to simply take the keys back, and accept the property in lieu of payment of the debt.  This is more likely if a Short Sales has been attempted and was unsuccessful.
  5. Strategic Default – If you are not insolvent, but are so far underwater that you seriously want out of the house and the mortgage, and don’t care what happens to your credit score and your ability to borrow for several years, you may simply choose to walk away and let your lender foreclose.
  6. Foreclosure – If you cannot, or will not, make the mortgage payments, your lender, or current owner of your mortgage loan, can choose to foreclose (a minimum 6-month legal process), take possession and sell the property.

Please keep in mind that I am a real estate agent, not an attorney.  I know about this stuff because I’ve dealt with it quite a bit, and I have a fair amount of training on it.  But if you need specific legal advice, consult your attorney, and if you need specific tax advice or financial advice, consult your accountant or your financial advisor.

If you would like to talk a bit more about any of this, please give me a call.

Chuck Reiling, Associate Broker, RE/MAX Metro+Eastside
(206) 850-3507

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My Mortgage is Underwater. Now What Do I Do? . . . Option 6 – Foreclosure

In the previous articles in this ‘My Mortgage is Underwater. Now What Do I Do?’ series, we discussed Option 1 – Sit Tight in the first article.  Then we discussed some options you might pursue if you didn’t have the income or the savings to be able to continue to make your mortgage payment:  Option 2 – Loan ModificationOption 3 – Short Sale, and Option 4 – Deed in Lieu of Foreclosure.  Then we talked about an alternative to Option 1, even if you could still manage to keep up your payments, called Option 5 – Strategic Default

In this post we will talk about Option 6 – Foreclosure, voluntary or involuntary.  The better you understand the foreclosure process, the better able you are to manage it and minimize the negative effects on yourself and your family.  In many ways, the foreclosure laws are set up to protect you, the borrower, as well as your lender, and so it is an orderly process that you can work within to try to minimize those negative effects, other than the basic big ones of giving up your house and getting a very big black mark on your credit. 

Washington state has provision for two kinds of foreclosure, called Judicial Foreclosure and Non-Judicial Foreclosure.  Almost all mortgage foreclosures in Washington are Non-Judicial foreclosures, and that is what is described in these notes.  The key to understanding the process is the required notices and statutory minimum timelines.

Please keep in mind that foreclosure is a legal process, and I am not an attorney.  So this is meant to be a overview guide to the process and some of the issues.  If you think you are going to have to go through foreclosure, read this guide and then talk with an attorney – I think it will help you to ask better questions and make more sense out of the answers.

Almost all residential ‘mortgages’ written in Washington are actually ‘deeds of trust’, and it is the deed of trust that sets up the non-judicial foreclosure capability.   Unlike a true mortgage, which is a two-party document, the deed of trust has a third party ‘trustee’ who actually holds the deed to your house.  The deed of trust includes an ‘acceleration clause’ which allows the lender to demand payment in full ‘immediately’ if the borrower defaults on the payments, and a ‘power of sale clause’ which says that if the borrower has defaulted, and cannot pay, then the lender can initiate  Non-Judicial Foreclosure.  A Non-Judicial Foreclosure is executed by the ‘trustee’, meaning it doesn’t have to go through the courts; the trustee can simply follow the notification procedures and minimum timelines defined by state law, and proceed to sell the property at a public foreclosure auction held at a county courthouse. 

Here are the key terms, notices and timelines:

  • Default – the date your mortgage payment becomes overdue, and you do not pay it
  • State law says the Trustee’s Sale, i.e. the foreclosure sale of your property, cannot occur sooner than 190 days after the actual Default date.
  • Notice of Default – at any time after you default, your lender can send you a Notice of Default and statement of intent to Foreclose.  The lender decides when to send this notice and start the foreclosure process, and it could be soon after default, or delayed for weeks or even months.  They must first correspond with you and assess your ability to pay the debt and explore with you other options for avoiding foreclosure – a new statutory requirement as of 2009.
  • Notice of Trustees Sale – this is a public document which is recorded in the County Recorders Office and published.  It is a public statement that your home is being foreclosed and will be auctioned to the highest bidder unless you stop the process by some payment agreement with the lender.  The lender does not have to agree to anything other than payment in full.  It cannot be issued sooner than at least 30 days after the Notice of Default is sent to you.
  • Trustee’s Sale – the actual sale of your home on the county courthouse steps.  The sale cannot occur sooner than 90 days after the Notice of Trustee’s sale is recorded and published, and also not sooner than 190 days after the original Default, whichever comes last.  Once the sale is done, you cannot redeem the property.
  • After the sale, the law provides 20 additional days for you to move out.  If you are paying attention to the timelines, you will have already planned, and perhaps executed, your move to your new home on your own schedule.

In Washington state law, when a home is sold at a Non-Judicial Foreclosure Sale, the lender cannot later pursue you, the borrower, for a deficiency judgment for the difference between the value of the property and what you owed them at the time of foreclosure.  Your debt on the original ‘mortgage’ is simply wiped out, along with most liens on the property, and you no longer have any rights or obligations to the property.  In the past, the IRS has said that you have to count forgiven debt as taxable ‘income’; however, the Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act of 2007 changed that so at least for now, and through 2012, you can generally exclude that debt-forgiveness ’income’.

Note that the lender also has the right to instead choose to pursue a Judicial foreclosure, through the courts, and in that case they can also pursue a deficiency judgement.  The main reason lenders don’t do this is that in a Judicial Foreclosure, you retain the right to redeem the property for a period of one year.  While it is pretty unlikely that you would do that, the possibility of such a redemption claim would certainly create a big problem in the mind of a potential buyer when the lender tried to re-sell the property, so generally lenders don’t try to go the Judicial Foreclosure route.

If you want to talk about this further, please give me a call.  I understand that it is a very uncomfortable and private thing, but if I can help you sort through it, I will.  I have talked with a lot of people sliding into foreclosure, dealt with a number of short sales, taken a lot of training, and am a designated Certified Distressed Property Expert.  And in the end, if you are going to go through this, you really do need to also talk with an attorney to make sure you’ve got all the facts straight.

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My Mortgage is Underwater. Now What Do I Do? . . . Option 5 – Strategic Default

In the previous articles we introduced this ‘Now What Do I Do?’ series, and discussed Option 1 – Sit Tight in the first article.  Then we discussed some options you might pursue if you didn’t have the income or the savings to be able to continue to make your mortgage payment:  Option 2 – Loan ModificationOption 3 – Short Sale, and Option 4 – Deed in Lieu of Foreclosure

In this post we’ll talk about a fifth option that you may want to think about even if you are financially capable of maintaining your payments.  Option means you have a choice.  This option is called Strategic Default or, more casually, ‘walking away’ or ’sending in the keys’.  You are ‘underwater’, and you owe more on the mortgage than the house is worth in the current market.  The essence of Strategic Default is that although you may be capable of continuing to make the mortgage payments, and are therefore not eligible for a Short Sale or Deed in Lieu settlement from your lender, you may decide for any of a variety of reasons that you should not continue making the payments, and that you will simply return your home to the bank and let them foreclose and re-possess it or sell it at the foreclosure auction. 

There are a number of key factors for you to consider in this thought process, none trivial, and all laid out many times in the press over the past couple of years.  Five of the main ones are summarized here:

  1. Your circumstances may have changed, and this house may no longer be appropriate for you – in size, in expense, in location, etc; perhaps no longer appropriate to the degree that you would consider bearing a fair amount of pain to get out of the mortgage, move out of the house, and start over.
  2. A foreclosure would cause a significant negative impact on your credit score, and your ability to buy another house later, or a car, etc; it could also have a negative impact on your ability to get your next job, as employers are starting starting to use credit records as a job qualification
  3. It is considered unethical and immoral to not pay your debts; however, it is not illegal.   The agreement you signed has a specific legal process,called foreclosure, for canceling it.  The lender, as well as you, willingly entered into both sides of the agreement, with the house as the secured asset.
  4. You may not have been prudent in how much you borrowed, but you didn’t cause the financial debacle we are now in, nor did you personally cause the value of your house to drop to the degree it has.  This is a bit like force majeure logic
  5. You have some obligation to consider the impact that staying in the home and continuing to make the payments has on your family’s well-being and financial future - relocating can be a major disruption, but being deeply underwater financially can be very stressful and unproductive. 

Please keep in mind, again, that I am not a lawyer or accountant or licensed financial planner, and I cannot tell you all the ins and outs and consequences of this kind of action in your particular situation.  If you have a second mortgage, or certain other kinds of liens, you particularly want to consult a lawyer, and perhaps your accountant as well, before making this kind of decision.  Not all types of liens are wiped out by foreclosure.

If you would like a little more description of the foreclosure process, please see the next and last post in this series – Option 6 – Foreclosure.  If you choose, for your own good and well-thought out reasons, to go down the Strategic Default path, then you want to manage the foreclosure process in the most businesslike and least painful way possible.

So there is lots to think about, and the stakes are not trivial.  But the evidence is that the further people are underwater on their mortgage, the more likely they are to make the Strategic Default decision.  Here is a chart  from a presentation at Moody’s Fall 2009 Economic Outlook Conference – in this chart, from page 10 of the presentation, the left axis is CLTV – Current Loan to Value Ratio.  A loan to value ratio greater than 100 means you are underwater.  Note how the delinquency rate, and implied default rate, starts climbing sharply for CLTV rates over 105%. 

                   

The whole presentation can be viewed here – Moodys Analytics – 2010 – Housing Recuperates

Part of this Strategic Default analysis often hinges on your expectation of how long it will take for your home to recover enough of its value that you are no longer underwater and are once again building equity.  Our blog post, Predicting The Housing Market Recovery covers a bit more about what you might expect to see in the market value of your home over time as the market and economy slowly recover.

If you want to talk about this further, please give me a call.  I understand that it is a very uncomfortable and private thing, but if I can help you sort through it, I will.  I have talked with a lot of people sliding into foreclosure, dealt with a number of short sales, taken a lot of training, and am a designated Certified Distressed Property Expert.   Although I can’t help you directly on some of this, but I’m happy to swap ideas and pointers if it would help you sort it out.

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My Mortgage is Underwater. Now What Do I Do? . . . Option 4 – Deed in Lieu of Foreclosure

In the previous articles we introduced this ‘Now What Do I Do?’ series, and discussed Option 1 – Sit Tight, Option 2 – Loan Modification, and Option 3 – Short Sale.

If you really can’t make your mortgage payment, not even reduced ones, and you’ve tried to do a short sale and it hasn’t worked, then maybe by now you feel like you are running out of time.  But there is one more option that may get you out with less damage to your credit record than a foreclosure.  That option is to get your lender to make a Deed in Lieu of Foreclosure agreement with you.  In essence, the lender is acknowledging that you can’t pay, and you can’t get it sold, so maybe they are better off to take the property back now, rather than go through the whole foreclosure process and wind up taking it back later anyway.  The logic for them is that the property is likely to be in better condition if you turn it over to them voluntarily now, and they may be able to shorten the time that they have to hold a non-earning asset, i.e. a ‘problem loan’, on their books.  

A key point in either a short sale agreement or a deed-in-lieu agreement is to ensure that you have the lender’s specific statement that they will not pursue a Deficiency Judgement against you for the difference between the value of the property and what you owe them at the time of the agreement.  My recommendation is that you have an attorney read the agreement to make sure that it is clear on that point before you sign it.  If you want to review some of the legal framework for this, refer back to the  Option 3 – Short-Sale article and the paragraph starting “Bear with me on a bit of legalese…”

If your lender will not give up the right to a deficiency judgment, and that would be a significant overhanging debt for you,  maybe you are better off just letting the propety go into foreclosure and wipe the slate clean that way.  Once again, if you are in this kind of situation, talk with an attorney.  My only purpose here is to give you an idea of how things work, and help you ask the right questions if the time comes.  If your lender is participating in the HAFA process described in the Option 3 – Short-Sale article, the deficiency judgement problem should not arise, but check to make sure.  That HAFA process provides for doing a Deed in Lieu of Foreclosure as a fallback from an unsuccessful Short Sale . 

If you want to talk about this further, please give me a call.  I understand that it is a very uncomfortable and private thing, but if I can help you sort through it, I will.  I have talked with a lot of people sliding into foreclosure, dealt with a number of short sales, taken a lot of training, and am a designated Certified Distressed Property Expert.  Your lender may not be willing to discuss Deed-in-Lieu if you have not at least tried a Short Sale, since that would in fact be the fastest path for them to get this non-earning asset off their books.  There is more information on the short-sale process posted on our website.  You can read through what you would have to do, and what I would have to do, to make that work.  If you are past that point, I can’t help directly, but I’m happy to swap ideas and pointers if it would help you sort this out.

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April ’10 – Reiling’s Real Estate Market Report – Greater Seattle / Bellevue / King County Area

Real Estate Market Overview:
Our Greater Seattle residential real estate market is jumping! But perhaps just temporarily until the tax credits expire – they only apply to transactions signed by April 30 and closed by June 30. Then we’ll see if the economy has picked up enough to keep things going.
 

The number of Closed Sales for both single family homes and condominiums in March was up over 50% above February’s number, and also over 50% above last March’s numbers. Prices continued to look solid, and have now spent a whole year at essentially the same stable price level. Inventory for single family homes is somewhat lower than a year ago, but condo inventory has moved a bit higher.     

Buying clearly has been stimulated by the Federal Homebuyer Tax Credits, and we should expect to see that effect continue through June, when all eligible transactions have to have been closed.     

Current Market Statistics:
 
 

The links below provide a graphical summary of Real Estate Market Statistics for the Seattle/Bellevue/King County area over the most recent 3+ years, for single-family homes and for condominiums. You can see clearly in the thumbnails and in the main charts the big jump in closed sales, which says that buyers really got busy signing contracts in February.
 

As might be expected, Months Supply for both houses and condos got worked down sharply from February’s high levels – to under 6 months for houses but still almost 9 months for condos.       

Here’s the charts for the current stats through March:  

(Required disclaimer: Statistics and graphs not compiled, reviewed or verified by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service) 
 

      
         
           Click for Residential Market Charts                Click for Condominium Market Charts
 
 

   

The Fall-Out Ratio of Pending vs Closed sales continues to drop, reflecting the banks and lenders continuing to make progress on responding to short-sale offers. The new HAFA regulations which went into effect on April 5 should help this even more. HAFA is the federal Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternatives program, and you can read more about it in the Short Sale section of our blog post series titled My Mortgage is Underwater. Now What Do I Do?       

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