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February ’10 – Reiling’s Real Estate Market Report – Greater Seattle / Bellevue / King County Area

Feb 21st, 2010
by admin.
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Real Estate Market Overview

Our Greater Seattle real estate market is continuing to look solid on a price basis, and continues to show the usual seasonal inventory patterns through the beginning months of the year. The level of Closed Sales, i.e. purchase transactions completed, continues to be seasonally strong. Closed sales levels for single family homes continue to run more at 2-years-ago levels, and seem to have shaken off the effects of the winter 2008/09 financial crash. As noted last month, some of that buying clearly has been stimulated by the federal First-Time Homebuyer Tax Credit, which had been scheduled to expire December 1. With the First-Time Homebuyer Tax Credit extended to this Spring (accepted offer with signed contract by April 30th), and the new Existing Homebuyer Tax Credit for the same period, it looks like that extra incentive is continuing to boost our ‘normal’ winter/holiday seasonal cycle. Here’s a link to more information on that Existing Homebuyer Tax Credit which I fondly call The Move-Up, Downsize, Move-Around Tax Credit.
Current Market Statistics

The links below provide a graphical summary of Real Estate Market Statistics for the Greater Seattle/Bellevue/King County area over the most recent 3+ years, for single-family homes and for condominiums. The volume of residential sales has seasonally bottomed as usual in January, although at a much higher rate than January of last year for both residential and condominium sales. Median prices seem to be holding steady, and the number of homes available is staying well below 2007 and 2008 levels. Months-Supply has bounced up sharply, for both residential and condominium, as it always does in January when the sellers get ahead of the buyers for a couple of months.
Here’s the charts for the current stats through January: (Required disclaimer: Statistics not compiled, reviewed or verified by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service)

    Residential Sales    Condominium Sales
            Click for Residential Market Charts                Click for Condominium Market Charts

The large Pending-Sale backlog is continuing to run pretty high, but coming down, perhaps indicating that fewer transactions are getting hung up in escrow on financing and short-sale issues. I’ll post some notes on the blog about Short Sales, Loan Modifications and Foreclosures on our blog within the next week, along with all of our other newsletter articles. So if you want to go back a check a previous one again, just click here.

 

Posted in: Bellevue, Eastside, For Buyers and Sellers, Greater Seattle, Marketing Reports, Uncategorized.
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Whither Interest Rates?

Feb 18th, 2010
by admin.
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Crystal Ball with House

There’s sure a lot of stuff being written these days about interest rates, and it certainly is a legitimate hot topic.  The most common view, often espoused by real estate agents and mortgage lenders, is that rates may go up significantly in the second half of the year – so you should buy now.  While I agree, of course, that now is a good time to buy, my opinion is heavily influenced by the continuing stability of prices and the advantage of the tax credits, as well as current low interest rates. 

My counter-arguments on the ‘rates will rise’ theory are that:

1. There are a lot of people and companies in this world who make their living selling money, i.e. making loans, and have lots of it.  The world is awash in money, and despite the recent unpleasantness, mortgages are still one of the best places to put it.  Large scale money has to have large-scale outlets, and mortgages are one of the largest.  Just like the rest of us, they can’t cry over spilled milk forever; they have to move on with the world as it is.  I expect that the lenders will soon once again be competing to sell you their money, although not as rashly as they did 3 years ago.

2. The Feds know that the housing market is one of the most critical components of the recovery, and they will not likely be willing to let rates rise enough to damage it.  It seems unlikely that they will allow interest rates to get as high as 6%, and they have plenty of ways to keep it down.  The bond purchase program that the Fed has been running all year is winding down right now, but they can wind it up again if they want to.  ‘Don’t Fight the Fed’ is a Wall Street saying that has a lot of history behind it.

3. Many people think that other sovereign nations will stop buying US government bonds (their competition is a big part of what keeps the price up and the yields/interest rates down).  ’Stop buying’ is a euphemism for ‘not willing to buy at currrent yield rates’, so the expectation is that they will demand much higher yields, or take their money ‘elsewhere’.   The argument is that our economy is so beaten up and our national finances are in such a mess that other countries will want to put their money somewhere else where it is at less risk.  That sounds logical – until you start looking at the alternatives – the ‘elsewhere’.  The issue in this argument is finding a better large-scale safe haven.  The large-scale options are the US dollar, the EU euro, the Japanese yen, and maybe the Chinese yuan.  Our recovery seems to be working, albeit slowly, and the dollar is rising on world markets; the big sovereign buyers seem to like it right now.  The European Union is seen at risk of coming apart over big deficits in Greece and Spain, followed closely by Italy, and therefore the euro is weak.  The Japanese have a far worse deficit problem than we do, and have been mired in a recession for almost 20 years.  And China is considered big, but young and unpredictable.  So right now we may not be viewed as solid as Switzerland used to be, but we are pretty clearly the least worst of the choices, and the dollars from our trade deficits will probably continue to be recycled back to us as bond purchases – and thereby hold the rates down for some time to come.

All the foregoing is pretty dense, but if you like that kind of thing, I can highly recommend the free weekly newsletter written by John Mauldin, the best real-time economic analyst and synthesist I’ve ever found.  Here’s a link to his Investor Insight newsletter site. 

Disclaimer: the thoughts above are entirely my own, gleaned from many sources, and are not to be attributed to John Mauldin.

Posted in: For Buyers and Sellers.
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The Move-Up, Downsize, Move-Around Tax Credit

Jan 25th, 2010
by admin.
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Crystal Ball with HouseThinking of moving? If you are or recently have been a homeowner, this $6,500 tax credit is for you.

Many people are now aware of the First-Time Homebuyer Tax Credit. Not nearly as many are aware of the similar tax credit for current and previous homeowners.

The tax credit, $6,500, is paid back to you through the IRS when you file your tax return after closing the purchase on your new home. You don’t have to sell your current home first, so it also works for buying a second home, or buying a home for your kids.

And it is independent of what kind of financing you use.

This tax credit was put in place in November ‘09 at the same time the first-time home-buyer’s tax credit was extended.  Both now require that your purchase contract be signed no later than April 30th of this year, 2010, and the transaction closed by the end of June.

So let’s start with basic qualification – if you currently or recently owned a home, and lived in it as your principal residence for at least 5 out of the last 8 years, then you are eligible, within certain not very restrictive income and price ranges. So even if you owned a home, and then sold it less than 3 years ago, you can still be eligible.

The credit is good for purchasing homes at a price under $800,000.  That covers over 80% of the homes currently listed for sale in the Seattle / Bellevue area, and includes all of the price range covered by conventional financing.

To check your income qualification, first look at your latest tax return for the number called Adjusted Gross Income, the bottom line on page 1 of the 2008/2009 IRS Form 1040.   The tax credit is based on a “modified” Adjusted Gross Income from your tax return not exceeding $125,000 if you file as an individual, or $225,000 if you are married filing jointly.  The “modified” part is a series of not very common foreign earned income items to be added to AGI if you have them.  The tax credit is reduced if you are married but filing separately.  The details are here in IRS form 5405 and its mind-numbing instructions.   Consult your tax professional if you’re not certain on the numbers.

If you sell the home or move out and rent it in less than three years, you’ll have to pay the credit back.  Otherwise you don’t.

If you are Military or Foreign Service posted overseas, you may have an additional year (April 30, 2011) to purchase a home and claim the credit.

If you are thinking about doing this, you’d better get a move on.  90 days from now is not all that long to find a new home, when the supply of homes on the market is tightening up, and many areas are now under 5 months supply.

If you’d like to follow along with us on the rest of this series of articles and related Greater Seattle / Bellevue real estate information, please join us at Greater Seattle Homes Today blog, and click the little gold fan-flag at the top.

Posted in: Bellevue, Eastside, For Buyers and Sellers, Greater Seattle.

Reiling’s Real Estate Market Report – 2010 – The Year Ahead

Jan 16th, 2010
by admin.
1 comment
2010 – The Year Ahead  
Crystal Ball with HouseOur greater Seattle-Bellevue real estate market is really in a state of flux right now, with lots of opposing forces trying to push parts of it around.  In the Market Overview section below I will try to show what those opposing forces are, and then in a following series of posts over the next few weeks, I’ll try to describe a little more about each of those forces and how it affects us.

Overall, however, I think this will be a reasonably steady range-bound market, with fairly normal moves in the range of plus or minus 5% for various segments.

If you want to follow along with us in this interesting year, please go to our Greater Seattle Homes Today blog, and click the little gold fan-flag at the top. 
Real Estate Market Overview  
As noted in the opening paragraph, our greater Seattle-Bellevue real estate market is really in a state of flux right now, with lots of opposing forces trying to push parts of it around.  Here’s the major forces, plus and minus, that I see in the market right now.
 
On the Plus side:
 - The First-Time Homebuyers Tax Credit – $8,000 until end of April
 - The Move-Up Homebuyers Tax Credit – $6,500 until end of April
 - Developing shortage of single-family homes under $700,000
 - Loosening credit for jumbo loans on homes and condos over $700,000
 - Availability of FHA 203K loans to help buyers fix up distressed homes
 - Increased federal pressure on banks to do loan modifications and reduce short sales
 - New federal rules to reduce uncertainty and speed up short sales
 
On the Minus side:
 - Uncertainty about extension of the homebuyer tax credit programs into the second half of 2010
 - Potential interest rate rise and mortgage rate increases later in the year
 - Rising reset problems with Option-ARM mortgages forcing more short sales and foreclosures
 - Banks potentially getting more aggressive on foreclosures and selling repossessed properties
 - New FHA rules that will reduce the number of FHA-qualified condominium complexes
 
Conclusions:  Limited supply of available single family homes and improved financing availability for higher-end homes may conspire to push median prices up a bit, in spite of the downside pressure from short sales.  For condominiums, the new FHA certification rules may tend to split the market, with well-run FHA-certified complexes drawing a premium for their owner/sellers, and less well run and maintained places suffering some price erosion due to buyer’s concerns about long-term value.  Overall I think this will be a fairly steady range-bound market, with moves in the range of plus or minus 5% for various segments.
 
In support of my cautious optimism, please recall that we are now working our way up out of a severe recession, the federal government will do everything it can to support and stabilize the housing market, and Seattle is still a very desirable place to live and work. 
Current Market Statistics  
The links below provide a graphical summary of Real Estate Market Statistics for the Seattle/Bellevue/King County area over the most recent 2+ years, for single-family homes and for condominiums. The volume of residential closed sales is seasonally bottoming, and next month should mark the low point for recording closed sales of transactions initiated in December, then the numbers will start rising again strongly in February and on into the Spring market.
 
Median prices have been holding steady for both residential and condomium homes, within a 5% range over the last 10 months, and the number of homes available is staying well below 2007 and 2008 levels. Months-Supply, a key measure of market health, continues to drop for Residential, now down to below 5 months, well below the magic balance point of 6 months, and significantly lower than a year ago. The Condominium months-supply, unfortunately, is holding well above 6 months, and may be rising, although one-month alone does not make a trend. The large Pending-Sale backlog may be starting to drop, with fewer transactions hung up in escrow on financing and short-sale issues.
 
Here’s the charts for the current stats through December: (Required disclaimer: Statistics and graphs not compiled, reviewed or verified by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service)
 
        

         Click for Residential Market Charts                 Click for Condominium Market Charts

The number of sales transactions closed for single-family homes continued to run above 2008 levels, now ten months running, and condominium sales have also been running above year-ago levels for the last few months. Inventory of homes for sale continues to run significantly below year-ago levels, roughly 20% lower for Residential and 10% lower for Condominium.

By the way, all of our articles are also posted on our Greater Seattle Homes Today blog, along with other articles on related topics and things of interest in the Greater Seattle area. If you want to track along with us, please go to our Greater Seattle Homes Today blog, and click the little gold fan-flag at the top. 

Posted in: Bellevue, Eastside, For Buyers and Sellers, Greater Seattle, Marketing Reports.
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The Holiday Effect on the Real Estate Market

Dec 26th, 2009
by admin.
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Every year we hear people talking about the holiday season slowdown in the real estate market, and asking questions like “Is it a good time to buy?” and “Is it a good time to sell?”  So I decided to take a look and see how strong the effect is in our Greater Seattle-Bellevue market, and what the data might tell us about how it works. My conclusion? It is a very strong effect, and you may be able to take advantage of it.

The graph below is a five-year average of month-end data on number of new listings and number of closed sales, normalized to 100% at the June 30 midpoint of the year.  Keep in mind that sale closing dates tend to lag offer and contract dates by 4 to 6 weeks, so when you see a big jump in closed sales, that was the result of Buyers selecting houses and signing contracts at least a month before.

ReilingTeam.com - Holiday Effrect - 600px

The first and most obvious thing about the data is that from mid-year, the rate of new listings coming on the market falls off by over 60%, accelerating in the holiday months of November and December.  Then the rate of new listings rebounds sharply in January, and then jumps again in March.  This two-step jump in the rate of new listings after the first of the year is consistent across all five years of data, it is not a statistical anomaly.

The second major insight is that the rate of sales does not drop as much through the holidays as the rate of new listings, and then it accelerates again right away in March. 

So what does this mean for potential Buyers and Sellers? 

If you are a Seller wondering whether or not it is OK to put your home on the market during the holidays, the answer is yes.  If you get it on the market by early November, you will have a period where there are fewer and fewer new listings coming on the market to compete with you, and proportionately a better number of active buyers to come look at it.   And if you are waiting until after New Years to put your house on the market, you probably want to get it on at least by the first of February, well before the March rush.

If you are a Buyer, you should see a good flow of listings coming on the market in January, but by February the competition with other Buyers will be heating up, as seen in the jump in closed sales by March.  Then the Spring buying season for families gets rolling, and doesn’t start slowing down until September.  If you are looking to buy, your best bet is to get out and start looking early in January, so that you get a good look at that first wave of listings (some of which will be re-lists from the Fall).  If you don’t find what you want then, you will be fully ready when the second wave of new listings comes on in March – you will know what you are looking for and the trade-offs you are willing to make.  You’ll be ready to make a decision when the right house comes up – and not lose it to someone else who was better prepared.

You may ask why I didn’t include the 2008/2009 season – the answer is that the financial crash distorted the normal pattern so much last winter that I didn’t want to use that data.  And our pattern this year is being distorted by the tax rebates for buyers - we won’t really know how this year’s pattern looks until next Spring.  We are blessed to live in interesting times :-)

Posted in: Bellevue, Greater Seattle.
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December ’09 – Reiling’s Real Estate Market Report – Greater Seattle / Bellevue / King County Area

Dec 10th, 2009
by admin.
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Real Estate Market Overview

Our real estate market is continuing to look solid on an ongoing basis, and of course is starting to look very good compared to the crash months of last Fall.  Last Fall, home sales, both residential and condominium, fell precipitously from October to November.  Not so this year.  The level of Closed Sales, i.e. purchase transactions completed, continues to be strong, and Inventory continues to drop in both Residential and Condominium. Some of that buying clearly has been stimulated by the federal First-Time Homebuyer Tax Credit, which had been scheduled to expire December 1. With the First-Time Homebuyer Tax Credit extended to next Spring, and the new Existing Homebuyer Tax Credit for the same period, we’ll see how that extra incentive affects our ‘normal’ winter/holiday seasonal decline cycle.
  
Hmmm, seems like its been awhile since things seemed normal :-) .
I’ll do a blog post on that ‘normal’ seasonal effect later this week.
   
Current Market Statistics

The links below provide a graphical summary of Real Estate Market Statistics for the Seattle/Bellevue/King County area over the most recent 2+ years, for single-family homes and for condominiums.  The volume of residential sales has seasonally topped and will slow a bit through the Fall and Winter months, although that is not obvious right now in the condominium market.  Median prices seem to be holding steady, and the number of homes available is staying well below 2007 and 2008 levels. Months-Supply, a key measure of market health, continues to stay near the magic balance point of 6 months, running a bit lower for Residential and a bit higher for Condominium. The large Pending-Sale backlog is continuing to run pretty high, indicating a lot of transactions hung up in escrow on financing and short-sale issues.  Here’s the charts for the current stats: (Required disclaimer: Statistics not compiled, reviewed or verified by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service)
 
   0911 Res Sales   0911 Cdo Sales   
         Click for Residential Market Charts               Click for Condominium Market Charts

 
The number of sales transactions closed for single-family homes continues to run above 2008 levels, now six months running and feeling pretty solid, and continuing above year-ago levels. Inventory of homes for sale continues to run significantly below year-ago levels, roughly 20% lower for Residential and 5% lower for Condominium. The promised analysis on the condominium market is posted here on our Greater Seattle Homes blog, as are all of our newsletter articles. So if you want to go back a check a previous one again, just click here.

Posted in: Marketing Reports.
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What’s Going On With The Seattle / Bellevue Condominium Market?

Nov 20th, 2009
by admin.
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The graphs below are the result of a study I did on the condominium market in the greater Seattle / Bellevue urban area, including all of Seattle and the Eastside from Renton Highlands to Bothell and out to Sammamish.  The first chart is a fairly traditional graph of the overall condominium Months Supply in this area, laddered by price range.  Months Supply is calculated as Current Inventory of condos for sale, divided by the average monthly rate of Sales, in this case through the summer months – July, August, September.  It shows pretty much what you would expect in our current market – the selected area is a little more tightly defined than in the King County condo charts I usually do in Reiling’s Real Estate Market Reports, but the shape is the same as in the full King County Months Supply by Price Range analysis I did in September.  Overall the lower price ranges show about 8 months supply, rising to over 36 months (3 years – ouch!) supply in the high price range. 

However, if we dig deeper, the picture changes quite a bit. 

New Condo HighriseIt  is somewhat common knowledge that many of the the newer high-rise urban condos are in trouble because they are expensive relative to prior low-rise developments, and because they have been overbuilt relative to demand. 

 

Older Condo LowriseWhat is less common knowledge is that the lower priced re-sale condos are selling very well.    

 

 

So how do we see that in the data?

Condo Months SupplyThis first chart shows the overall Months Supply situation for condominiums by price range, and clearly shows the sharply rising Months Supply (read oversupply) at the high end of the price range.  Condominium Months Supply – Overall

 

Condo Market AnalysisThe second chart shows the same situation broken down into a grid by price and age to show how some major segments of the condo market are performing differently.  Condominium Supply – By Segment

 

The newer condos, those built in 2007 and later, represent almost 25% of the current market inventory, and even that is understated because the developers don’t list every unit for sale – they often list only a sampling of the types of units, particularly those that are complete and ready for sale.  By contrast, the older resale condos built before 2007, i.e 2006 and older, are almost 75% of the market, and generally sell for under $500,000.  So in this chart, reading left to right, the first box set, Sales Rate, is the number of units sold per month through the summer in each age/price segment, the second box set is the remaining Inventory of unsold condo units in each segment, and the last box set is the current Months Supply in each segment.  No surprise that the newer higher priced condos are way out in Buyer’s-Market-land with over 15 months supply.  But look at the lower-priced resale market at only 4 months supply!  That is starting to be Seller’s Market country, and is the source of some of the multiple-offer stories we’ve been hearing lately.  If you have a clean move-in-ready under-$500k condo that you want to sell, you can probably find a buyer pretty quickly these days.  That’s good news :-)

Posted in: Bellevue, Eastside, For Buyers and Sellers.
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November ‘09 – Reiling’s Real Estate Market Report – Greater Seattle / Bellevue Area

Nov 11th, 2009
by admin.
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Real Estate Market Overview

Our Greater Seattle / Bellevue real estate market is continuing to look solid, with median prices on both condominiums and single family homes holding pretty steady for nearly 7 months now.  Inventory continues to drop in both categories, as does Months Supply.  Closed Sales in both categories showed an uptick in October, which may well have been pushed by the pending expiration of the First-Time Homebuyer tax credit - which has just now been extended and expanded.  Even with that new tax credit, we should expect to see some seasonal slowdown for the winter months, but hopefully not the knockdown of last winter that drove sales way down and let inventory pile up to a 15 months supply. 
Current Market Statistics

The links below provide a graphical summary of Real Estate Market Statistics for the Seattle / Bellevue / King County area over the most recent 2+ years, for single-family homes and for condominiums.  The volume of residential sales would normally be seasonally slowing a bit through the Fall and Winter months, but the tax credit effect has has kept things moving.  The number of single family homes (residential stats) available is staying well below 2007 and 2008 levels.  Condominium Months Supply has finally fallen below 8 months, and residential Months Supply is down to 5.  We are starting to hear of more multiple offer situations, indicating both reality in seller pricing and rising competition among buyers for the good properties.  Here’s the charts for the current stats through October: (Required disclaimer: Statistics not compiled, reviewed or verified by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service)
 
                    KC Seattle Bellevue Condominiums                                 Greater Seattle/Bellevue Condominiums  
                  Residential Sales Charts                              Condominium Sales Charts
 
The number of sales transactions closed for single-family homes continued to run above 2008 levels, now five months running and feeling pretty solid, and condominium closed sales have finally also caught up with 2008 levels.  Of course from here on we would expect very favorable year-over-year comparisons as these months a year ago were the crash months, with abnormally low activity.  Hard to fault buyers then for being hesitant when the whole economy seemed to be crashing down around our ears. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Posted in: Bellevue, Eastside, For Buyers and Sellers, Greater Seattle, Marketing Reports.

Homebuyer Tax Credit – Now for Move-Up Buyers Too

Nov 7th, 2009
by admin.
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mmgweekly2This newly-signed legislation contains quite a few parts, including a new tax credit for move-up buyers as well as extension of the timeframe for first-time buyers:

 (Thanks to MMG for this excellent summary)
- Extended Timeframe for First-Time Homebuyers
- New Tax Credit for Move-Up Homebuyers
- Higher Income Caps
- Tax Incentives for Energy Savings
- Expanded Housing Assistance

Tax Credit for Homebuyers

First-Time Homebuyers (FTHBs): First-time homebuyers (that is, people who have not owned a home within the last three years) may be eligible for the tax credit. The credit for FTHBs is 10% of the purchase price of the home, with a maximum available credit of $8,000.

Single taxpayers and married couples filing a joint return may qualify for the full tax credit amount.

Current Owners: The tax credit program now gives those who already own a residence some additional reasons to move to a new home. This incentive comes in the form of a tax credit of up to $6,500 for qualified purchasers who have owned and occupied a primary residence for a period of five consecutive years during the last eight years.

Single taxpayers and married couples filing a joint return may qualify for the full tax credit amount.

What are the New Deadlines?

In order to qualify for the credit, all contracts need to be in effect no later than April 30, 2010 and close no later than June 30, 2010.

Tax Credit Versus Tax Deduction

It’s important to remember that the tax credit is just that… a tax credit. The benefit of a tax credit is that it’s a dollar-for-dollar tax reduction, rather than a reduction in a tax liability that would only save you $1,000 to $1,500 when all was said and done. So, if a first-time homebuyer were to owe $8,000 in income taxes and would qualify for a tax credit of $8,000, she would owe nothing.

Better still, the tax credit is refundable, which means the homebuyer can receive a check for the credit if he or she has little income tax liability. For example, if a first-time homebuyer is eligible for a tax credit of $8,000 but is liable for $4,000 in income tax, she can still receive a check for the remaining $4,000!

Higher Income Caps

The amount of income someone can earn and qualify for the full amount of the credit has been increased.

Single tax filers who earn up to $125,000 are eligible for the total credit amount. Those who earn more than this cap can receive a partial credit. However, single filers who earn $145,000 and above are ineligible

Joint filers who earn up to  $225,000 are eligible for the total credit amount. Those who earn more than this cap can receive a partial credit. However, joint filers who earn $245,000 and above are ineligible.

Maximum Purchase Price

Qualifying buyers may purchase a property with a maximum sale price of $800,000.

Tax Incentives to Spur Energy Savings and Green Jobs

This provision is designed to help promote energy-efficient investments in homes by extending and expanding tax credits through 2010 for purchases such as new furnaces, energy-efficient windows and doors, or insulation.

Landmark Energy Savings

This provision provides $5 Billion for energy efficient improvements for more than one million modest-income homes through weatherization. According to some estimates, this can help modest-income families save an average of $350 a year on heating and air conditioning bills.

Repairing Public Housing and Making Key Energy Efficiency Retrofits To HUD-Assisted Housing

This provision provides a total of $6.3 Billion for increasing energy efficiency in federally supported housing programs. Specifically, it establishes a new program to upgrade HUD-sponsored low-income housing (for elderly, disabled, and Section 8) to increase energy efficiency, including new insulation, windows, and frames.

Expanding Housing Assistance

This provision increases support for several critical housing programs. It includes $2 Billion for the Neighborhood Stabilization Program to help communities purchase and rehabilitate foreclosed, vacant properties.

Posted in: For Buyers and Sellers, General Information.

October ‘09 – Reiling’s Real Estate Market Report – Greater Seattle / Bellevue Area

Oct 14th, 2009
by admin.
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Real Estate Market Overview:

Creater Seattle Closed Sales - 0910Our real estate market is continuing to look solid, with good statistics and increasing good press.  There is quite a bit of good news in terms of number of new purchase transactions completed, and Days-On-Market (the average time it takes to sell a home) continues its welcome decline.  However, some of that buying has been in response to the federal First-Time Homebuyer Tax Credit, which is still at this point scheduled to expire December 1.   Then we’ll see how much the move-up buyer demand picks up in the next stage of our recovery.

Current Market Statistics:

The links below provide a graphical summary of Real Estate Market Statistics for the Seattle/Bellevue/King County area over the most recent 2+ years, for single-family homes and for condominiums.  The volume of residential sales is now seasonally topping and will slow a bit through the Fall and Winter months, median prices seem to be holding steady, and the number of homes available is staying well below 2007 and 2008 levels.  Months-Supply, a key measure of market health, continues to stay slightly below the magic balance point of 6 months, and the lower price ranges are doing even better.  The large Pending-Sale backlog is continuing to run pretty high, indicating a lot of transactions hung up in escrow on financing and short-sale issues.  Here’s the charts for the current stats: (Required disclaimer: Statistics not compiled, reviewed or verified by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service)

                      Residential Sales Charts          Condominium Sales Charts

The number of sales transactions closed for single-family homes continued to run above 2008 levels, now four months running and feeling pretty solid, and continuing above year-ago levels.  Inventory of houses for sale continues to run significantly below year-ago levels, but the picture is not so rosy for condominiums.  It is true that the condominium inventory level is staying below a year ago, but Sales are still well below a year ago, and Months Supply is remaining stubbornly high for most of the market.  We’ll do more analysis on the condo market in a following letter.

Posted in: Bellevue, For Buyers and Sellers, Marketing Reports.

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